China gearing up to overtake Japan in battle for Asian football supremacy
The national teams are improving, the league is booming and, most importantly, the government is investing to ensure that the youth of the world's most populous country takes up its most popular game in its tens of millions. If this plan comes together, Japan, Asia's premier power, should watch out.
In terms of league football, the Middle Kingdom is on the march. In 2011 the Chinese Super League overtook the J-league in terms of average attendance. In 2015 in terms of continental club competitions, it is living La Liga loca, while Japan's clubs are outdoing even their English equivalents in ineptitude. After three games of the 2015 Asian Champions League group stage Guangzhou Evergrande and Beijing Guoan have more individual points than all four Japanese teams combined. Of the J-League quartet, only Kashiwa Reysol have won a game. Urawa Reds, Gamba Osaka and Kashima Antlers - perhaps the three biggest teams in Japan - have, between them, lost eight and drawn one of their nine.
Foreign players are playing a major part in closing the gap. China is now the go-to Asian market for the best overseas talent thanks to the money invested in a number of clubs, often by flush real estate companies. J-League teams can't compete. Guangzhou, winner of the past four titles and the 2013 Asian crown, were the first and are the best. A 4-3 win over Kashima last week showed once again the difference that top-class imports can make, with the Brazil international Ricardo Goulart, signed for €15m in the close season, grabbing a hat-trick. Other clubs are spending in an attempt to catch up.
Jang Hyun-soo is a South Korean international who was signed from FC Tokyo by Sven-Goran Eriksson in 2014 at Guangzhou R&F. The Swede left at the end of last season, tempted by the even greater riches at Shanghai SIPG, but Jang remains and has high hopes for the game in China. "The Chinese Super League is improving all the time," he says. "There are good players and good coaches with lots of clubs investing. In terms of individual talent, there is not much difference between [Chinese players and] Korean and Japanese players, it's similar. The understanding of tactics is not as good, however, and the same can be said of their reading of in-game situations," adds Jang, who believes this aspect will improve over time, helped by the influence of foreign coaches and players. "Chinese football has its own style and atmosphere, it's like Europe. The games never stop. I am much more tired after a game in China than I was in Korea or Japan."
Japan produce better players but the best tend not to tarry, heading to Europe in increasing numbers whereas Chinese clubs are able to keep hold of their top local talent. This makes the east Asian scene, according to Urawa's coach, Mihailo Petrovic, more equal. Some Chinese clubs are starting to discuss the possibility of looking at the top end of the J-League as a new market to go with the growing number of Korea internationals active in the CSL. Few players/clubs would be able to resist the salaries/fees.
Tim Cahill is an Asian star inspiring Shanghai Shenhua to unusually good form. The fact that the Australian's two goals knocked China out of the Asian Cup in January at the quarter-final stage has not dimmed his popularity. The Red Dragons were pleased at the progress made after years of disappointment. In Australian press rooms, the sight of Chinese scribes smiling was, after years of frustration and chain-smoking, as strange and refreshing as the Japanese sports drink Pocari Sweat.
Buying the best foreigners offers rapid improvement but the real path to the top is built upon youth development, an area where Japan are light years ahead. Finally though, there are concrete and coordinated moves to improve the quantity and quality of young players produced in China. The population is there but the players are not. There's no mystery. Chinese youth just don't play the game in big numbers.
President Xi Jinping, a football fan, wants to change this. The ministry of education has introduced a compulsory programme that will be in 20,000 schools by 2017. It all means that, soon, approximately eight million kids will be playing regular football and that's just the start. Last week Chengdu announced it will build 300 football pitches and Shandong's schools will stop volleyball and basketball to focus on football. Other cities are following suit to create extensive local leagues.
Public cynicism about Chinese football, formed by years of disappointment, incompetence and scandals, may hardly be easier to break down than an Italian defence marshalled by the new Guangzhou Evergrande coach, Fabio Cannavaro, but it is starting to erode. Having the World Cup would help - last week the Chinese government announced plans to bid and Fifa is unlikely to refuse. The tournament should happen sometime in the 2030s.
Two decades or so from now, a new generation of players should be ready. The 2002 World Cup was a major milestone in the development of Japanese football. By the 2030s China's league should be established as one of the world's best, with the national team an Asian power. Hosting the event could take everything to the next level.
There is no debate that one day China's economy will become the biggest in the world. The only question is when. In football, there is no such sense of inevitably but for the first time perhaps, China is starting to look like it can not only overtake Japan to become Asia's best but can join the ranks of the football superpowers.
