CIS countries need to revise migration legislation, says Kyrgyz expert

Kyrgyzstan respects tightened migration control measures launched by Russia after the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack, Kyrgyz politician, author of the Berdakov Online Telegram-channel Denis Berdakov said it in an interview with Kazinform News Agency.

The expert notes that Kyrgyzstan respects the introduction of additional security measures and tightened control of foreign nationals at border checkpoints in Russia.

"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kyrgyzstan recommends its citizens to refrain temporarily from travelling to the Russian Federation, except for ample reasons, until these security restrictions are lifted, said Berdakov.

When speaking on how the terror attack in Moscow can impact the Central Asian countries, the expert listed a number of consequences.

“In a short term, all illegal migrants will be departed from Russia within three months. It should be noted that over 1.5-2.5 million people regarded as migrants in Russia, in fact, obtained Russian citizenship long time ago. Many of them are second-generation migrants. This problem has not been dealt  either by a visa regime or deportation. As for more than 3-month outlook, it is more likely that everything will be forgotten given colossal workforce shortage. Speaking on the period from 1 to 1.5 years, many of those departed will have to be returned due to a huge shortage of workforce. Everything will depend on the economic situation in Russia and events taking place around the world,” said Berdakov.

According to him, the nationals of Central Asian countries, who wanted to stay in Russia, did it long time ago having already obtained Russian citizenship. Many of them got Russian citizenship in early 2000s. They brought up children, who have already served in the Russian army, got high education in Russia, including military one. Some were employed in governmental and law enforcement structures. Some have been issued mortgage loans from Sberbank.

“The labor migrants arriving in Russia solely for earning money, will seek to adapt to the markets of Türkiye, Great Britain, South Korea, where skilled and unskilled labor force deficit is observed. The situation is quite dynamic,” he said.

The expert sees several options of the situation development in case of adoption of new restrictions against labor migrants from Central Asia.

“The first consequence is that those labor migrants willing to become Russian citizens, they will obtain the citizenship, because they see it as the only way [out of the situation – edit]. According to my calculations, more than 500 thousand ethnic Tajiks have obtained Russian citizenship over the past 12 years. In Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, this process is also underway, but by an order of less.

Second. Another part of labor migrants who are not satisfied with the restrictions will have to search for other labor markets.

The third group of skilled labor migrants  will agree to be hired under an employment contract. If it is a skilled labor migrant, it makes no difference how he will be hired. For example, a 6th grade welder is in demand both in the Russian Federation and in Hungary, South Korea, Eastern Europe, and Germany. Such professionals understand that their qualification can become "a pass to the labor market,” the expert believes.

The expert stands for organized labor migration. He believes that the introduction of a two-year limit on the length of employment contracts with labour migrants, will, in fact, become one of the cracks in the Eurasian Economic Space mechanism.

“The EAEU was established because of two things - the labor market and the fuel and lubricants market. The service market, educational and financial markets, to a large extent, are not working seriously. If the labor market cracks, Kyrgyzstan, like Kazakhstan, will be in the EAEU, but to a much lesser extent. The fuel and lubricants market, on the contrary, is interesting to Kyrgyzstan year by year,” the expert said.

“Central Asian countries need a good union, which will encompass trade-economic, investment relations both with Astana and Moscow, in order to build properly trade logistics” he points out.

According to Denis Berdakov, Russian policy will be based on granting citizenship to new “ethnic compatriots” and on attracting specialists through organized recruitment.

Given the ongoing security threats in the region, the expert believes that Central Asian countries need to strengthen military-political integration, cross-border cooperation, and interaction between security and intelligence services, as well as trade and economic cooperation in a format of Three - Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan.

“It is necessary to strengthen the competent, strong national apparatus, including security forces. With a strong state apparatus, no one will be able to overthrow the government, although attempts will be taken. We observed this in different years in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. The countries need to strengthen their statehood. As practice shows, the biggest problem of such associations as the CSTO is the presence of internal political discord and intra-elite conflict in countries. If internal forces fail to cope with them, external intervention will only worsen the process.

Also, the main problem of Central Asia is lack of jobs, water shortage and overpopulation. Taking into account the region’s population of about 80 million people, the three countries require very close joint economic interaction on water, electricity, and communications issues”, he stressed.

Denis Berdakov notes the need to establish a strong trade and economic route from China to Russia and from China to Europe and to the Middle East.

“More than a thousand years ago, the Silk Road which ran through Samarkand, Bukhara, and southern Kazakhstan was prosperous. Today we see the revival of this path. As for investments offered by Europe to China in the past 2 years, and Qatar offered to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, this is approximately 30-50 times more than what was offered throughout the independence of these countries,” he adds.

In his words, the state system must quickly accept the money, invest [it - edit], help, and support.

He emphasized that if everything in the region develops and prospers, destructive elements will find it difficult to penetrate into it, since "the key destructive idea in our societies is social injustice and chronic poverty."

“If these two elements are eliminated, while a rigid vertical of power is maintained, then this arrangement will suit everyone," the expert concludes.