Did Altay Ainabek increase the water level in the Aral Sea? – Conclusion of the RSE “Kazhydromet”
The Republican State Enterprise “Kazhydromet” in its response to a request from the Kazinform News Agency provides a scientific assessment of the rumors regarding Altay Ainabek’s technology for artificial rain induction through atmospheric ionization.
What does the UN say about this?
According to the official response, “Kazhydromet” requested a scientific conclusion from the World Meteorological Organization, which is responsible for artificial climate modification, regarding the technology of rain induction through atmospheric ionization.
“Experts from the World Meteorological Organization, studying the impacts on the atmosphere, report that the technology of ionization has been researched. The report on this study states that none of the events where it is claimed that rain was induced through ionization have been confirmed either by observations or by digital modeling across territories,” the response states.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is an authorized body of the UN that monitors the atmosphere and studies its interactions with oceans.
“The WMO report on active climate influence states that all technologies intended to increase precipitation can only accelerate natural processes and can be implemented only in specific areas. The LLP “International Center of Climate Change Technologies” which you mention uses the ionization method in its work. However, currently, the global scientific community does not recognize this technology,” write the specialists from “Kazhydromet”.
Rain over the Aral Sea was predicted 10 days in advance
“In the June-July period of this year, no changes were recorded in any part of Kazakhstan that would go beyond climatic characteristics. No deviations were registered in the interaction of baric structures, the formation of cloud systems, or precipitation. The amount of precipitation in June-July was within or below the long-term average,” states the “Kazhydromet” report.
Meteorologist’s analyses show that in June-July 2024, cyclonic activity predominated over Kazakhstan.
“In May (from May 4-8, May 13-14, May 16-22, and May 24-25), as a result of frequent passage of the South Caspian and Southern cyclones over the Kyzylorda region, precipitation ranged from 0.1 to 12 mm. On the night of May 5, the regional center recorded rain with an intensity of 19-27 mm. In June, under the influence of Southern and Atlantic cyclones, from June 6-9 and June 22-30, precipitation ranged from 0.1 to 4 mm. In July (July 1-22), the region was under the influence of a slowly moving Southern cyclone. As a result, on July 6, 8, and from July 10-20, precipitation ranged from 0.1 to 13 mm. Given the above, it should be noted that the precipitation in the Kyzylorda region and Kyzylorda city was associated with natural synoptic conditions and was predicted with an accuracy of up to 10 days,” write meteorologists.
From the “Kazhydromet” response, it can be understood that the water level in the Northern Aral Sea increased this summer not due to rain but due to water arriving from the Shardara River.
“According to data registered at the hydro post near the village of Karateren, in the first half of this year, 1 billion 138 million cubic meters of water flowed into the Northern Aral Sea from the Syr Darya River. This is 33% less compared to long-term data. There is a trend of decreasing annual water volume at the mentioned post according to long-term data. Regarding the water level in the Northern Aral Sea, in June, the average level was 4,118 cm. This is 4 cm lower compared to June of last year and 93 cm lower compared to the long-term average,” the response states.
‘It is impossible to artificially induce rain over the Aral Sea’
Specialists from “Kazhydromet” say that it is impossible to induce artificial rain from the atmosphere in such arid regions as the Aral region.
“The Aral region is considered an arid and water-deficient area characterized by a continental climate. The annual precipitation level is about 100-130 mm, and the annual evaporation level is tens of times higher, or 1,250-1,450 mm. This, in turn, limits the possibilities of providing large areas with water resources through precipitation. Since atmospheric processes are very complex, an appropriate climatic potential is needed to artificially increase precipitation volumes. In the Aral region, this potential is low. According to studies conducted by Kazakh meteorologists, only the northern regions of the country have sufficient potential to increase precipitation levels through cloud water reserves. In other regions, these indicators are insufficient. These data are provided in the monograph by Professor, Doctor of Geographical Sciences A.V. Cherednichenko 'Climate Change of Kazakhstan and Adaptation Possibilities through Available Cloud Water Reserves' (Monograph. Bishkek: Ilim, 2009. – 260 pages). Experimental studies conducted in Russia and the USA has proven that modern technologies increase natural precipitation levels by only 10-15%,” states the conclusion of “Kazhydromet”.
Furthermore, the authors of the response remind that Uzbekistan agreed to supply Kazakhstan with 3.7 billion cubic meters of water through the Syr Darya River. According to official data, from April 1, Uzbekistan supplied 3.9 billion cubic meters of water to Kazakhstan through the Syr Darya River. From the reservoir to the lower course of the Syr Darya, 3.6 billion cubic meters of water were released. This is 950 million cubic meters more than last year’s figure. As a result, 700 million cubic meters of water flowed into the Kyzylkum Canal, and 400 million cubic meters into the Northern Aral Sea.
