Donald Trump - the 47th president of the USA: What policy will he choose toward Central Asia?
Donald Trump has resumed the role of President of the United States, signaling shifts not only within America but on a global scale. What can Central Asian countries anticipate from the leadership of a prominent entrepreneur and billionaire renowned for his unpredictability and recent legal challenges at home? A Kazinform News Agency correspondent delves into this topic.
To understand the Trump administration’s stance on Central Asia, it’s essential to consider the policies of the Republican Party, believes Mark Temnycky, a non-resident research fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He notes that Trump interacted differently with Central Asia during his first term compared to the Biden administration.
According to the Central Asia Program at George Washington University, the Trump administration “made minimal efforts to develop a new political approach to Central Asia.”
For instance, several high and mid-level positions for Central Asia and other parts of Asia remained unfilled in the U.S. Department of State and USAID due to budget cuts. Former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson did not meet with his Central Asian counterparts, complicating U.S. engagement with the region.
In February 2020, the Trump administration announced its strategy for Central Asia, aimed at “promoting regional integration, supporting reforms and human rights, as well as encouraging investments and development assistance from the U.S.”
This announcement indicated that the Trump administration prioritized Central Asian activities, yet challenges remained. The strategy was introduced mere months before the 2020 election, leaving little time for policy implementation.
The plan also faced criticism. According to Voice of America, Trump’s Central Asia strategy “did not differ significantly from that of his predecessors”. In other words, it resembled U.S. actions toward Central Asia under Bush and Obama.
Paul Stronski of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace highlighted that the biggest success of Trump’s Central Asia plan was “the region was not harmed”.
During the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in July, the Republican National Committee announced its platform for the 2024 presidential election. The document did not emphasize strengthening America’s relationships with its allies and partners. Russia was not mentioned, nor was the need to bolster relations to counter China’s influence.
However, Wesley Alexander Hill, the lead analyst and director of the International Tax and Investment Center’s Energy, Economic Growth, and Security Program, believes the new administration will be “hawkish” on China.
According to the expert, there are multiple shared strategies for countering China in industrial, trade, and tariff policy, which will inevitably extend to Central Asia.
“The U.S. may not surpass China in trade or infrastructure projects, but it has a major advantage in education, promoting local economic initiatives, organizing business contacts, and finding suppliers of various services,” notes Hill.
Kamran Bokhari, senior director of Eurasian Security and Prosperity at The New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, notes that Central Asia will hold strategic importance for any new U.S. administration.
He observes that the “C5+1” platform, initiated during the Obama administration, was carried forward by Trump and later elevated by Biden at the head-of-state level at the UN General Assembly in September 2023, though this isn’t sufficient.
Bokhari estimates that the U.S. needs a stronger presence in Central Asia, as it is the only region where U.S. influence has been relatively weak, and previous administrations haven’t devoted adequate attention.
Thomas Dans, a research fellow at the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom at the Heritage Foundation, also noted that both administrations have more in common than differences regarding Central Asia policy. He explained that the essence of both policies is greater U.S. involvement in the region.
The expert added that both political parties agree on the need to grant Kazakhstan the status of “Permanent Normal Trade Relations” (PNTR). He also praised the “B5+1” initiative, which directly pertains to business, but emphasized the need to develop people-to-people ties through expanded tourism.
Richard Hoagland, Director of Security and Policy Programs at the Caspian Policy Center and former U.S. ambassador, believes that regardless of the party in power, the U.S. traditionally follows a consistent foreign policy, including its approach to Central Asia.
The ambassadors suggests that the new president should prioritize a visit to Central Asia and establish a schedule of regular cabinet-level meetings, while also extending invitations for official White House visits to high-ranking leaders from the region.
Hoagland noted that no U.S. president has ever visited Central Asia; the first high-ranking U.S. official was Vice President Al Gore in the Clinton administration, who visited Kazakhstan in December 1993.
Some speculate that the new Trump administration might offer a distinctly different approach. Trump’s foreign policy often centers on personal negotiations leading to “one-time deals”. He tends to avoid long-term alliances, preferring to keep the U.S. from commitments without immediate, tangible benefits. Trump has shown a preference for “strong leaders” such as Vladimir Putin in Russia, Viktor Orban in Hungary, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey.
In this context, Trump may attempt to end the Ukrainian conflict through peace negotiations with Russia. He is expected to seek a reset in U.S.-Russia relations and focus on countering China and Iran.
Reducing tensions between the U.S. and Russia would allow Central Asian countries to pursue a more balanced policy without choosing sides. However, U.S. pressure on Beijing and Tehran could affect the interests of Central Asian countries in the region.
