Ecological error or natural occurrence: The mystery behind seal deaths in Kazakhstan
A total of 1,989 dead seals were found along the Kazakh coast of the Caspian Sea in October and November. The exact causes of their deaths remain undetermined. Experts have proposed hypotheses, while environmental activists have voiced suspicions and raised new accusations. Specialists interviewed by a Kazinform News Agency correspondent suggest that the mass seal mortality may be the result of a combination of factors, including potential natural processes and environmental phenomena.
What is known about seal deaths in Kazakhstan?
From October 24 to November 13, 2024, the Zhaiyk-Caspian Interregional Basin Fisheries Inspection reported the discovery of 1,155 seals washed ashore along the Caspian Sea coastline in the Tupkaragan district of Mangistau Region.
“During aerial surveys of the Mangistau Region coastline — including the islands of Qulaly, Tengiz, Podgorny, and Novy, as well as the Karazhanbas and Kalamkas oilfield areas — an additional 834 seals were found. In total, 1,989 dead seals were collected during this period,” the statement said.
The situation has raised significant concerns among local experts, who have launched investigations into the causes of the animal deaths. The research involves the Institute of Hydrobiology and Ecology, the Seal Research and Rehabilitation Center, and the Research Center for Microbiology and Virology.
At the same time, the Fisheries Inspection is monitoring the waters and coastal areas of the Caspian Sea to identify other potential contributing factors to the seals’ deaths. The Veterinary Control and Supervision Committee have also taken samples to test for infectious diseases.
The Fisheries Committee has suggested that natural phenomena, such as gas emissions caused by underwater earthquakes, could be a potential cause.
Definitive conclusions will be made after the completion of the research, which, according to scientists, will take 3-4 months.
Disappearing species
Azerbaijani experts emphasize that the future of the Caspian seal, or nerpa, now depends on coordinated conservation efforts across the region. In 2008, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) classified the species as endangered.
Decades of oil exploration, industrial pollution, and overfishing have significantly harmed the Caspian ecosystem, reducing the seal population by half since the 1970s. From an estimated 1.2 million individuals at the turn of the 20th century, the population has now dwindled to just 75,000–270,000.
Studies by Azerbaijani scientists highlight a grim reality: up to 2,000 seals are washed ashore annually along Azerbaijan’s northern Caspian coastline after storms.
For instance, in 2000, approximately 6,000 dead seals were found along the Azerbaijani coast, while Kazakhstan reported over 10,000 fatalities. Across the entire Caspian region, up to 30,000 seals died that year alone.
Today, Azerbaijani researchers are participating in conferences in Makhachkala to discuss the state of the Caspian ecosystem. The event, organized by Russia’s Caspian Institute of Biological Resources, aims to address the pressing environmental challenges facing the region.
Pollution and pesticides
According to researcher Tariel Eibatov, pollution in the Caspian Sea is another significant factor contributing to the decline of the seal population.
He notes that waters near the Volga and Kura river deltas in Russia and Azerbaijan show high levels of hexachloran and other agricultural pesticides. These chemicals accumulate in the seals’ fat, reaching toxic concentrations as they migrate south in search of food.
“Seals store fat in their blubber, which can be up to 15 centimeters thick. This fat absorbs harmful toxins from polluted waters,” Eibatov explains. “When female seals travel north to breed, they rely on this fat to sustain themselves during a three-month fasting period. As a result, toxin levels in their bodies’ spike, leading to infertility and unsuccessful pregnancies,” he concludes.
Fishing nets and poaching
Illegal fishing poses a serious threat to the Caspian seal population. Many seals drown after becoming entangled in nets set by poachers in Russia and Azerbaijan. Despite this danger, the overall seal population remains relatively stable, according to Tariel Eibatov. However, he warned that the species’ future is at risk due to declining water levels in the Caspian Sea and dwindling fish stocks, which are a primary food source. Eibatov also contested claims that global warming significantly affects seal numbers, emphasizing human activity as the main factor.
The head of the Mangistau Regional Association of Fisheries and Aquaculture, Daniyar Akimzhanov, does not believe fishing nets are the primary cause of seal deaths.
“Seal deaths occur every year in the autumn and spring months. Our fishermen set nets in the Caspian Sea year-round, and these nets remain underwater 24/7. So the question arises: why do seals die only in autumn and spring? I think the cause lies elsewhere. Research institutions need to do a better job. They take samples, but the results are unsatisfactory. They still cannot pinpoint a specific cause,” Akimzhanov said.
He also noted that along with seals, dead aquatic birds and fish are often found.
Dead seal bodies on the shore — a natural process?
Adilbek Kozybakov, Chairman of the Regional Environmental Council of the ECOJER Association for the Mangistau Region, believes that these events are governed by natural laws.
“Seal mortality is recorded every year. This applies not only to seals but to other animals as well. I would attribute these events to the natural laws of nature. As animal populations increase, so does mortality. For example, 1% of 100,000 seals are 1,000. If this number of seals die annually, that’s normal,” he explained.
However, Kozybakov pointed out the lack of accurate monitoring data.
“According to various sources, the Caspian Sea hosts between 100,000 and 300,000 seals. Due to the lack of precise census, monitoring, and control studies, we cannot say for sure whether the seal population is increasing or decreasing,” he added.
Tariel Eibatov also acknowledged the possibility of seal deaths due to natural causes.
“Animals may die from diseases, get caught in fishing nets, or simply reach the end of their 50-year lifespan. Currently, seals are migrating north during the fall, and during this time, some get trapped in nets and suffocate. Their bodies are then washed ashore during storms. However, this should not be mistaken for a mass mortality event. Historically, around 2,500 seal carcasses were found annually along the shores of the Absheron Peninsula. But due to the declining seal population, this number is now much lower,” Eibatov explained.
The Caspian seal population is estimated at approximately 170,000, though Russian and Kazakh scientists suggest it could be as high as 300,000. These seals primarily inhabit the central part of the Caspian Sea.
“In Azerbaijan, seals are rare. They are occasional visitors in the summer and are almost entirely absent in the winter, as they migrate north to breed. They wait for the water to freeze so that females can give birth. Three weeks later, they leave their pups and migrate back south,” the expert noted.
According to Adilbek Kozybakov, the issue has not only ecological but also economic implications.
“A special commission must be established, an investigation conducted, and those responsible must compensate for the damages. The value of a single seal is 193 MRP (as per the order of the Ministry of Agriculture of Kazakhstan in 2017), or 712,556 tenge. That’s just one seal! Multiplying this by 2,000 individuals results in damages of 1 billion 425 million 112 thousand tenge. This is the minimum amount of damage already inflicted. Why do I call it the minimum? In 2017, the seal was not yet listed in the Red Book; this happened later, in 2020. This means criminal liability should automatically apply, and a criminal case should be initiated even for the death of a single seal. Here, we’re talking about 2,000 seals—this constitutes a particularly large-scale incident. Therefore, I appeal to the authorities: a commission must be urgently created to investigate the causes. The reasons must be identified, the guilty parties punished to the fullest extent of the law, and compensation for the damage must be demanded,” Kozybakov asserted.
He added that the public would learn the exact causes of the animal deaths more promptly if independent experts were involved in monitoring efforts.
“We need to involve independent experts to study this issue. However, there are obstacles. For example, under the Entrepreneurial Code of Kazakhstan, independent experts can only be engaged if funded by companies receiving state budget financing. Only after this can the Department of Ecology and the Prosecutor’s Office invite them for inspections and include them in their work,” he explained.
Given these circumstances, Kozybakov expressed doubt about the objectivity and impartiality of experts funded under the current system. He suggested that involving independent experts in research and monitoring could only be ensured by amending the Entrepreneurial Code accordingly.
