Forecast gives Kamala Harris a slim lead in the 2024 presidential battle – The Hill
The Decision Desk HQ 2024 forecasting model, as reported by The Hill, predicts that Kamala Harris has a 55% chance of winning the Presidency, according to a Kazinform News Agency correspondent.
With less than 41 days remaining before the 2024 US presidential election, Democrats are in one of their strongest positions of the campaign cycle, largely due to a change in their candidate.
However, the race remains highly competitive. Recent polls conducted after the debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, as well as following a second assassination attempt on Trump, show a closely contested race. Both campaigns are now in a critical phase, with the first mail-in ballots already being distributed.
Kamala Harris holds a slight edge in the race, but the gap between her and Trump is extremely narrow. Harris is projected to secure 226 electoral votes, while Trump is expected to win 219. The outcome will likely be decided in seven key swing states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina. In these states, neither candidate has a clear lead. All seven were closely contested in the 2020 election, with margins of less than 3%. Of these, Nevada and North Carolina have consistently leaned toward one party in recent elections, while the others have flipped between Democratic and Republican control.
If both candidates win all the states where they are currently favored, the presidency will be decided by these swing states. Harris would need 44 electoral votes from these states to win, while Trump would need 51. Trump’s most efficient path to victory involves holding North Carolina and flipping Georgia and Pennsylvania, which would give him exactly 270 electoral votes. Harris’s clearest route requires her to win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which would also result in exactly 270 votes. This makes Pennsylvania a crucial battleground state that could decide the outcome of the election.
The model, based on 14,000,605 simulations, shows a 0.4% chance of a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College. The close nature of the race and the importance of key swing states make this election one of the most competitive in recent history.
