Global coal use to hit record in 2024, but growth slows

Coal consumption worldwide is on track to hit an all-time high of 8.77 billion tons in 2024, with electricity generation as the primary driver. However, the International Energy Agency's latest report predicts that demand will level off as renewable energy sources play an increasingly significant role in meeting global power needs, Kazinfrom News Agency reports.

China, the world’s largest user of coal, plays a key role in global coal markets. According to IEA data, one in every three tons of coal burned worldwide is used in Chinese power plants. In 2024, China’s coal demand is expected to rise by 1% to a record 4.9 billion tons. Still, the country’s growing use of solar, wind, and nuclear energy is likely to help keep coal consumption stable through 2027. The report also highlights uncertainties like weather changes and rising electricity needs, which could affect coal use in China by as much as 140 million tons above or below forecasts.

While demand is slowing in China, it is rising in other developing countries. India’s coal use is expected to grow by more than 5% in 2024, reaching 1.3 billion tons. By 2027, India’s demand could increase by another 100 million tons. Similarly, countries like Indonesia and Vietnam are seeing coal use rise due to their fast-growing economies, with most of the demand coming from the power sector.

In advanced economies like the United States and the European Union, coal use has already peaked and is declining. The IEA says that EU coal use will drop by 12% in 2024, while U.S. coal demand will fall by 5%. These drops are caused by a shift toward renewable energy and the shutdown of coal power plants, such as the UK’s last coal power plant, which closed in September 2024.

Coal production is also expected to reach new highs in 2024, exceeding 9 billion tons globally. China, India, and Indonesia are producing record amounts, with India’s output rising by more than 7% thanks to government support. Indonesia’s production is set to exceed 800 million tons for the first time. Despite this, international coal trade will peak at 1.55 billion tons in 2024 before declining. Asia remains the focus of trade, with countries like China, India, and Japan being major buyers.

The IEA argues that clean energy is reshaping the electricity sector, which accounts for two-thirds of global coal use. “The rapid deployment of clean energy technologies is reshaping the global electricity sector, which accounts for two-thirds of the world’s coal use. As a result, our models show global demand for coal plateauing through 2027 even as electricity consumption rises sharply,” said IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori.

Factors like weather, economic changes, and new policies will continue to influence coal demand, especially in China. The report underscores that while coal remains critical in some regions, its role is being reshaped by the global transition to renewables.

Earlier it was reported that Kazakhstan was set to launch its first coal-chemical complex.