How will global geopolitics change in 2025?
At the beginning of the year, it is customary for everyone to ponder the future of global geopolitics. However, this year, the situation is so uncertain and ambiguous that, for the first time in the past 30 years, no one has even a reasonably clear answer or understanding of the main trends, according to a Kazinform News Agency correspondent.
The unpredictability of the world’s largest player
Of course, the main unknown variable is the new U.S. President, Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20. He has already promised a range of radical measures on various issues, including tariffs on imported goods, the deportation of migrants, and a possible ban on vaccine development if well-known anti-vaccine advocate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. becomes Secretary of Health.
Among Trump’s recent statements are his claims on Greenland and the Panama Canal. He also suggested that Canada could become the 51st state of the United States.
Such unpredictability leaves global politicians nervous. Planning actions becomes nearly impossible when the most significant global player behaves unpredictably, especially on issues like global trade. This concerns virtually everyone, from Canada to China.
Despite widespread criticism of globalization, modern levels of economic development are undoubtedly its result. While this complex process has its beneficiaries—historically assumed to include the U.S.—Trump’s administration appears to be reconsidering globalization in favor of either isolationism or heightened protectionism. However, protectionism carries its own risks: tariffs on imports typically provoke retaliation, and a “war of protectionisms” or trade wars could signal the onset of a globalization crisis.
Trump’s statements about the Panama Canal and Greenland lean more towards imperialism, reminiscent of the Monroe Doctrine of 1823. This doctrine, under President James Monroe, declared European interference in Latin America as a threat to U.S. interests, eventually leading to U.S. expansion against Mexico and the annexation of nearly half its territory (modern-day California, Texas, New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona, etc.) following the 1846–1848 war.
Territorial disputes could become a hot topic in 2025. The resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, for example, will likely involve territorial considerations. Trump’s prospective special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has suggested freezing the conflict along the current demarcation line and establishing a demilitarized zone.
Major changes await the Middle East
Significant shifts are also expected in the Middle East in 2025. Trump is likely to continue pursuing the Abraham Accords, fostering economic and diplomatic ties between Israel and Arab states. For Gulf Arab nations, this initiative is as much about countering Iran as it is about economic development.
Trump’s return to power coincides with a weakened Iran following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and the weakening of the so-called “Axis of Resistance”. Gulf Arab states might decide to compete for market share amid rising U.S. oil production—one of Trump’s stated policy goals. Such competition could lead to falling oil prices, as occurred in 1987–1988, which hastened the end of the Iran-Iraq war and created challenges for the Soviet Union.
Possible scenarios for 2025
Pessimistic scenarios dominate predictions for 2025. For instance, in December 2024, The Financial Times outlined five scenarios for Trump’s new presidency. These included:
- A major U.S. deal with Russia and China dividing spheres of influence.
- A U.S.-Europe trade war.
- Global anarchy due to a “leadership vacuum” following U.S. withdrawal, leading to regional conflicts.
- Globalization without U.S. involvement, with Europe partnering with China.
- Strengthened U.S. leadership through protectionist policies.
While these scenarios sound dire, they likely reflect fears rather than realistic outcomes, especially within the short timeframe of Trump’s presidency. No one desires anarchy, trade wars, or other disruptive trends. Thus, extensive negotiations and consultations on various issues are expected after January 20.
Western political systems and international relations possess significant inertia. Bureaucratic procedures and checks and balances will slow down even the most radical ideas. Individual national and conglomerate interests—particularly in a globalized world—must also be considered. While Trump is a decisive politician, he cannot act alone, and bureaucracies will inevitably address broader concerns. As a result, revolutionary ideas may get bogged down in paperwork and negotiations.
Another factor to watch is Germany’s parliamentary elections in February 2025. Trump’s close ally Elon Musk has urged Germans to vote for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). Without such endorsements, the AfD would likely secure about 20% of the vote, placing second after the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). However, the AfD is unlikely to join Germany’s future government. The CDU is expected to form a coalition with either the Green Party or the Social Democrats. Germany’s political system is robust enough to withstand Musk’s influence, as it is a system, while Musk is just one individual.
In 2025, geopolitical developments are expected to unfold rapidly and could significantly impact global politics and economics. However, the most pessimistic scenarios are unlikely to materialize. Challenges may arise, but they could also serve as a necessary wake-up call, prompting the world to address potential mistakes and chart a clearer path forward.
Earlier, Kazinform News Agency reported on the most transformative and significant events of 2024. These included Donald Trump’s return to the political stage, Bitcoin achieving record-breaking highs as the top-selling cryptocurrency, and China lifting restrictions on foreign investments in the manufacturing sector.
