IEP Report: Which countries currently have the greatest military potential?

According to a recent report from the Australian Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) global military expenditures are increasing, but their proportion of national GDPs is declining, reports a Kazinform News Agency correspondent.

The report titled “Contemporary Trends in Militarisation” notes that there are currently 59 military conflicts around the globe - the highest number since World War II. In 2024, 92 countries are somehow involved in armed conflicts outside their territories.

The report’s authors identify several global trends.

One of the trends is the increase in military expenditures coupled with a decrease in their share of national GDPs. The military budget’s share of the global economy is about half of what it was at the height of the Cold War.

Another trend is the decreasing number of troops. IEP experts link this to the military’s growing dependence on technological innovations. This dynamic - both the reduction in military personnel and the proportion of military spending in the economy - has been consistent over the last three decades.

According to the report's authors, the military sector holds the most significant place in the national economy in North Korea (at least 24% of GDP according to 2023 data). It also occupies a notable position in the GDP of Afghanistan (10%), as well as in countries in the Middle East and Africa: Oman (5.9%), Algeria (4.8%), Mali, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia (4.5%).

Among the former USSR states, Armenia (4.2%) and Azerbaijan (3.8%) top the list. These countries have long been engaged in a conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.

In the U.S. economy, military expenditures account for 3.1%. Fifteen years ago, this figure was at 4.7%.

In 2022, the U.S. spent $736 billion on defense, significantly exceeding the military expenditures of China ($282 billion), India ($75 billion), the United Kingdom ($69 billion), and Russia ($63 billion).

Regarding the number of personnel in armed forces, the study’s authors note that it has decreased in most countries worldwide. While in 1995, the total number of military personnel globally exceeded 30 million, by 2019, this figure had dropped to less than 28 million.

According to the IEP, India is the only major power where an increase in the total number of troops was observed. In contrast, significant reductions were recorded in the U.S., Russia, and China.

In some countries, the number of military personnel per 100,000 inhabitants is notably high compared to others. According to IEP data, Eritrea holds the record with 5,476 military personnel per 100,000 people in this small country in northeast Africa. This rate is also high in North Korea (4,837), Israel (1,875), Armenia (1,542), Greece (1,384), South Korea (1,303), Taiwan (1,240), Sri Lanka (1,168), and Lebanon (1,092).

Ukraine also stands out in this metric: in 2023, shortly after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, there were 1,376 military personnel per 100,000 Ukrainians. In 2008, this figure was four times less (340).

The IEP report also compares countries globally in terms of their overall military capabilities. Typically, when assessing military power, the focus is on the number of military units (such as fighters or naval ships). IEP relies on a methodology that accounts for technological differences between different generations and classes of military equipment. For instance, the report emphasizes that one cannot equate Su-27 or F-16 fighters with the more advanced F-35 aircraft in calculating military potential.

IEP experts have calculated that the United States currently possesses the greatest military power. According to their estimates, China can boast 0.91% of the U.S.’s military potential, and Russia 0.9%. The list of countries with the greatest military capabilities also includes France, the United Kingdom, India, Japan, South Korea, and Italy.

Discussing the overall level of militarization in the world, analysts at the IEP believe that this indicator has been declining globally since 2008. This trend reversed in 2022; according to the report’s authors, the level of militarization on the planet is expected to increase for at least the next five years.