Middle East conflict expected to continue, says Kazakh expert

In the past week, the world has witnessed how countries and international organizations are unable to stop the bloodshed in the Middle East. The escalated clash between Israel and Hamas has already killed more than 4,000 innocent people. An analysis of the new world order system shows that the war in the Middle East will be long, Karlygash Nugmanova, professor, doctor of political science and president of the East-West International Center for Geopolitical Forecasting, told Kazinform. 

Multiple actors

“An analysis of the new world order system indicates that the war in the Middle East will be protracted and is a continuation of the restructuring of the new global order. There are increasingly clear signs that another attempt to address the accumulated problems all at once is unfolding. There won't be any talk of a blitzkrieg; this is a long-term story,” said Nugmanova.

“Israel seeks to push all Palestinians out of the Gaza Strip, then the West Bank, and around the borders. They aim to create conditions so that there's nowhere for them to return, and they disperse across the Middle East and Europe, causing upheaval,” says the Kazakh expert.

Nugmanova believes the conflict involves multiple actors.

“A well-thought-out and logical narrative involves multiple participants in the strategic games in the region, including Russia, Iran, Türkiye, China, India, Pakistan, the United States, and, of course, international oil monopolies,” she said.

Humanitarian catastrophe

According to Philippe Lazzarini, the Commissioner-General of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), an “unprecedented catastrophe is unfolding before our eyes.”

“Gaza is being strangled and the world seems to have lost its humanity. Every hour we receive more and more desperate calls for help from people across the Gaza Strip. Thousands of civilians were killed over the last 12 days, including women and children,” he said at the 18th extraordinary session of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation on October 18.

At least one million people were forced to flee their homes in just one week.

Karlygash Nugmanova said after the onset of a humanitarian catastrophe, several million Palestinians will end up in Egypt.

“Cairo will not be able to keep its borders closed for long. Add to this Egypt’s problems with Islamists, and not only Egypt. The previous president was ousted in 2013, and his party, the Muslim Brotherhood [a banned terrorist organization in Kazakhstan], which is very close to Hamas, is declared a terrorist organization. Egypt will start expelling this entire crowd to neighboring countries and Europe,” said the expert.

Impact on global markets

Nugmanova echoed what analysts have been saying lately about the potential impact of the conflict on global markets.

“Oil prices continued to soar amid the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The cost of a barrel of oil in the world exceeded $90. The international market continues to react to the course of the military conflict between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas. Brent crude oil futures reached a high of $91.2 per barrel on Monday, and over the past few days they have risen by 5.7 percent,” said Nugmanova.

Wall Street Journal reported on October 18 that the surge in the cost of renting oil tankers this month, which has almost doubled, is partly driven by concerns that the conflict between Israel and Hamas could disrupt shipping through the Suez Canal.

While tanker rates are currently lower than the peak they reached last year following the start of Russian actions in Ukraine, the Baltic Dirty Tanker index, a measure of crude oil transportation costs, has increased from 871 to 1,244 points since October 6, the day before the Hamas attack on Israel.

The analysts say that if the conflict was to spread to Egypt and result in the closure of the Suez Canal, tanker rates would significantly escalate. The canal plays a critical role in connecting the Mediterranean and the Red Sea, considerably reducing the time it takes for goods and commodities to travel between the East and West.

What is for Central Asia?

Nugmanova said in the Central Asian region’s foreign policy priorities, the Middle East holds a special place.

“Arab countries possess not only vast oil wealth but also investment potential, which Central Asian countries had placed considerable hopes on. Israel objectively cannot claim any significant position in the list of foreign policy priorities of Central Asian countries,” she said.

Given Israel’s “state of war and its protracted conflict with the Arab world,” it does not seem an attractive partner for Central Asian nations, she added.

“However, for Israel, the most important aspect in its relations with Central Asia is the geopolitical factor,” she said.

This sends a signal for Central Asian countries, she noted, that it can ensure it does not become dependent on imports from countries that can “shut off the valve” not only for geopolitical but also ideological reasons.

Latest updates

The hostilities have been ongoing for the 12thday. The latest data from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs indicates the cumulative fatality toll in the Gaza Strip is 3,478 as of October 18, including at least 853 children. Hundreds of people are believed to remain under the rubble.

An explosion at Al Ahli Hospital in Gaza resulted in the tragic loss of 471 lives, including children, healthcare workers, and internally displaced people, the most devastating incident in Gaza since the recent escalation of hostilities. The siege of Gaza continues, including a full electricity blackout.

Nearly 1,400 Israelis and foreign nationals have been killed in Israel, with the majority in an October 7 attack from Hamas. At least 199 people are held captive in Gaza, including Israelis and foreign nationals.

On October 18, the United Nations held a vote in the Security Council. The United States utilized its veto power to block a UN Security Council resolution that would have called for “humanitarian pauses” to facilitate the delivery of life-saving aid to millions in Gaza.

Among the council's 15 members, 12 voted in favor of the resolution proposed by Brazil, while one member, the United States, voted against it, and two members, Russia and the United Kingdom, abstained. A no vote from any of the five permanent members of the council, which include China, France, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States, has the authority to halt action on any proposed measure.

UN Middle East Envoy Tor Wennesland said the world is “at the brink of a deep and dangerous abyss that could change the trajectory of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, if not of the Middle East as a whole.”

“The risk of an expansion of this conflict is real - very, very real - and extremely dangerous,” he said.

The vote occurred at a time when large groups of demonstrators flooded the streets in multiple countries following the tragic hospital explosion in Gaza on Tuesday, which sparked widespread anger and condemnation.