New Japan PM set to be picked Oct. 1 when extra Diet session begins

The successor to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will likely be selected on Oct. 1, when an extraordinary Diet session is expected to be convened, sources familiar with the plan said Friday, Kyodo reports.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party is set to choose its next president on Sept. 27. With both houses of parliament controlled by the LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito, it is a formality the winner will be the next prime minister.

The government and the ruling parties are now arranging the schedule, which will be finalized by Kishida's Cabinet in late September.

If the next premier decides to dissolve the powerful House of Representatives soon after he or she is elected, the earliest date for a snap election will be Oct. 27. Another possible date is Nov. 10, if the new leader wants to take their time, according to the sources.

While the current Cabinet will decide when the extraordinary parliamentary session begins, it will be the next leader who hammers out the details, including the timing of a policy speech and the length of the forthcoming session.

Kishida is stepping down at the end of his three-year term in late September, after a slush funds scandal hurt voter confidence in the ruling party. A record seven or more candidates are expected to run in the LDP leadership election.

In 2021, Kishida was elected prime minister on Sept. 29. He dissolved the lower house on Oct. 14 of that year for a general election on Oct. 31. Campaigning for the race kicked off on Oct. 19.

Lawmakers are on guard against the possibility that the next prime minister will follow the previous example, and choose to hold a general election at an early date before his or her honeymoon period ends.

If history is any guide, campaigning may begin on Oct. 15 for voting on Oct. 27. This will coincide with an upper house by-election in Iwate Prefecture, northeastern Japan.

Another option is for campaigning to start on Oct. 29 and voting to be held on Nov. 10. This will allow the new leader to attend a series of meetings related to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Laos around Oct. 10.

The prevailing view is that Nov. 3 will be ruled out due to a three-day holiday in Japan.