Plankton collapse could destabilize ocean ecosystems by 2100, new research shows
A new study from the University of Bristol, published in Nature, highlights a troubling future for marine life if global temperatures continue to rise. Researchers found that plankton, the foundation of ocean biodiversity, may fail to adapt to rapid climate changes, threatening the balance of marine ecosystems, Kazinform News Agency reports.
Researchers used a model to analyze ancient and future climate scenarios, examining the potential responses of plankton, a fundamental element of the ocean's ecosystem, to warmer temperatures. Findings show that unlike during past warm periods, plankton will struggle to survive in rapidly warming oceans.
The study shows that although certain plankton species were able to adapt to warming during the Last Glacial Maximum approximately 19,000 years, the unparalleled rate of present warming will probably exceed their capacity to acclimatize. Lead author Dr. Rui Ying says "the results are alarming," and continues with "Even with the more conservative climate projections of a 2°C increase, it is clear plankton cannot adjust quickly enough to match the much faster rate of warming which we're experiencing now and looks set to continue."
The study emphasizes the vulnerability of the whole marine ecosystem by suggesting that this restriction could cause notable poleward migration and a reduction in carbon biomass by up to 15%.
"Plankton are the lifeblood of the oceans, supporting the marine food web and carbon storage. If their existence is endangered, it will present an unprecedented threat, disrupting the whole marine ecosystem with devastating wide-reaching consequences for marine life and also human food supplies," stressed Dr. Rui Ying.
The scientists duplicated the previous adaptability of foraminifera, a form of plankton, using an innovative ecological model and compared it with expected responses under projected warming conditions for the next century. Global sea surface temperatures are predicted to rise by up to 2.8°C by 2100, which will lower main production by as much as 13.5%.
As Professor Daniela Schmidt, co-author of the study and contributor to IPCC reports, cautions, "This work emphasizes the great risks posed by the dramatically fast climate and environmental changes the world is now facing. With these worrying trends set to worsen, there will be very real consequences for our ecosystems and people's livelihoods, including fishing communities. So the message is clear—all nations must collectively and individually step up efforts and measures to keep global warming to a minimum."
The UN has issued strong warnings that global temperatures could rise by 3.1°C if stronger action is not taken. Which could threaten marine wildlife, fishing communities' ways of making a living, and the world's food security.
