Shifting sands: Biden’s exit reshapes the 2024 US presidential race

Joe Biden has withdrawn from the presidential race after weeks of asserting his intention to remain a candidate. This boosts Vice-President Kamala Harris’s chances of becoming the Democratic nominee, reports Kazinform News Agency correspondent.

Harris, honored by Biden’s endorsement, aims to win the nomination. Most Democrats are likely to support her to avoid uncertainty before the convention.

“Democrats are now lining up to endorse Vice President Harris so as to avoid “chaos” at the Democratic Convention next month. Many still carry the memory of Chicago in 1968, the last time the Democrats held an open convention. It was a disaster, with dueling rioters in the streets - protesters and police,” the article in Politico recalls.

According to BBC, Harris is next in line constitutionally, and overlooking her would be detrimental to the party. She would also have access to $100 million in campaign funds. However, her low approval ratings, similar to Biden’s and her previous missteps as vice-president pose risks. Her 2020 presidential run was unsuccessful due to poor campaign management and a lack of vision. Choosing Harris is risky, but the threat of a Trump victory leaves Democrats with no safe options.

Second is that Harris has had a rocky time as vice-president. Early in the administration, she was given the task of addressing the root causes of the migration crisis at the US-Mexico border.

That’s a daunting challenge, and a number of missteps and misstatements opened her up to criticism. She’s also been the administration’s point person on abortion rights, which has been a topic she has much more effectively handled. But those first impressions have stuck, the BBC quotes.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Harris has already run for national office - her 2020 bid for the Democratic presidential nomination - and stumbled badly. While she surged early, a combination of fumbled interviews, a lack of clearly defined vision and a poorly managed campaign led her to drop out before even the earliest primaries.

“Opting for Harris is a risk for Democrats, but at this point there are no safe options. And the stakes – a possible Donald Trump victory – are as high as they get,” the article in BBC quotes.

Michael Starr Hopkins, CEO of Northern Starr Strategies, suggests that Kamala Harris is ready to energize the base, bringing a prosecutor’s grit and the charisma needed to go head-to-head with Trump. According to the expert, young people, women, and communities of color will see themselves in her fight. “Don’t buy the tough talk from Trump’s camp,” the expert advises. “They know they’re in for a real battle. This is an entirely new race with an entirely new tone.”

According to Helen Andrews, a senior editor at The American Conservative, the outcome of the upcoming election is seemingly predetermined: “It doesn’t matter whom the Democrats pick. They can’t stop what’s coming. Donald Trump will win in November, because voters remember what life was like during his term and it beats the past three years on every metric, from cheaper groceries to fewer wars.” She argues that the Democrats’ strategy of portraying Trump as a threat to democracy is undermined by their own actions, particularly if they disregard the results of their own primary due to external pressures such as donor influence.

Furthermore, Andrews critiques the potential candidacy of Kamala Harris, noting that her historic bid for the presidency as the first woman could be perceived as lackluster if it stems from a compromised process. “We all want to see a woman president, but not like this,” Andrews states, suggesting that any victory achieved through perceived illegitimacy would devalue a significant feminist achievement. This analysis depicts a political strategy that is filled with challenges and skepticism from the electorate.

The Republican narrative of strong vs. frail is no longer relevant

This year’s Republican convention was a carefully calibrated machine, promoting the party’s most popular agenda items and focusing criticism on one man, President Joe Biden. However, with Biden not seeking re-election, the Republicans’ strategy, led by Donald Trump, has been upended.

“It turns out, the Republicans were targeting the wrong guy. With the news of Biden’s abandoning of his re-election campaign, the Republican game plan spearheaded by Donald Trump has been turned on its head,” the article in BBC quotes.

The campaign had previously showcased their candidate’s vigor with a dynamic entrance, featuring appearances by Hulk Hogan, Dana White, and a performance by Kid Rock.

The attempts at contrast with Biden’s perceived frailty - and the strategy to peel away younger male voters - were obvious. But in any scenario now, the Democratic nominee is going to be someone much younger than the president.

A strategy of strong vs. frail against Vice-President Kamala Harris or one of the more youthful Democratic governors just won’t pack the same punch. If Harris is the nominee, expect the Republicans to try to tie her to the perceived failings of the current administration.

Chuck Rocha, founder of Solidarity Strategies and former advisor for Bernie Sanders’ 2020 campaign, predicts a unified Democratic Party rallying behind Kamala Harris in the next four months. With Joe Biden not seeking re-election, resources including the Future Forward super PAC, which has over $200 million, will now support Harris. Expect significant online fundraising efforts, hitting record highs.

“The most interesting thing immediately will be who Harris picks to be her vice president. I think that’s where things are really going to align for the excitement in the party and where the jockeying will really happen. I don’t think anyone can take on the vice president as the nominee because in the Democratic Party, you do not want to be seen as going against the potential first woman president and the first woman of color,” Rocha said.

Harris has been a prominent figure in opposing the Dobbs decision, which stripped away established women’s rights. Her candidacy, especially as a woman of color against two white male opponents, might be underscored by this issue and highlighted in campaign ads. Stay alert and prepare for an intense political season, the expert concludes.