The mood in the United States before the elections

A part of the American electorate that supports Joe Biden found themselves in a difficult position after the debate of their candidate from the Democratic Party, Kamran Bokhari, Senior Director of the Eurasian Security and Prosperity at the New Lines Institute for Strategy & Policy in Washington, said in an interview with Kazinform's News Agency own correspondent.

The expert noted that the turning point for the US population was the debate between two candidates for the post of head of the White House – the current President Joe Biden (Democrat) and former President Donald Trump (Republican) on June 28.

Joe Biden’s quiet voice and constant stuttering in speech made an unpleasant impressions on his fellow party members, donors and the electorate, who began to raise the issue of his replacement.

These debates have caused division and confusion among supporters of the Democratic Party, which increases the chances of their political opponent winning.

Kamran Bukhari noted that until June 28 of this year, American society was clearly polar and the American population supported their candidates in approximately equal proportions.

“Joe Biden’s state of the union address in March demonstrated that the president was in good shape and dispelled doubts about his health and strongly positioned him for the political struggle for the presidency in November this year," Kamran Bokhari said.

Recall that Joe Biden disagreed with the report of Special Prosecutor Robert Hur on the case of improper storage of classified documents, which noted that the American president, while communicating with investigators, could not remember several moments when he held the position of vice president and when his eldest son Beau died.

The March speech of the president calmed the public and the question of Joe Biden’s physical condition did not rise before the debate.

What is happening now, the Democrats from the House of Representatives and the Senate, donors and public figures urge Joe Biden to withdraw his candidacy, which, according to the expert, will further complicate the situation.

“It's too late for Biden to withdrawal his candidacy. The process of removing a candidate will take several weeks, and it is already the middle of July and there is no time to prepare a new candidate, since there are only three months left – August, September and October,” Kamran Bokhari emphasized.

The expert also noted that the Democrats do not have an alternative significant and well-known candidate to replace Joe Biden – one who could defeat Trump.

So, US Vice President Kamala Harris is not remembered for the specific results in her current post. Former First Lady Michelle Obama has no ambitions for the White House, as she has repeatedly stated before. American politician Hillary Clinton has already lost to Donald Trump. A number of proposed governors have a huge disadvantage – they are little-known: Gavin Newsom (California), Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan), Jay Robert Pritzker (Illinois), Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania) and Andy Beshear (Kentucky). Robert Kennedy Jr is also not suitable, since he first ran for the Democrats, then declared himself an independent candidate, and also received significant support from Republican donors and Donald Trump's allies.

In the current situation, the expert sees three scenarios for the development of the situation, which will be proposed from the most likely to the less realistic.

The first scenario – the Republican candidate Donald Trump will win the presidential election, as he is already ahead of Joe Biden.

The second scenario is the candidate of the Democratic Party Joe Biden will win the election. But, in this development of the situation, it must be taken into account that the White House will have to support him for four years, since Joe Biden’s age makes himself felt, or after a while the president will transfer his powers to the vice president and here a lot of attention needs to be focused on the successor.

The third scenario is that Joe Biden withdraws his candidacy and Donald Trump wins, as the new candidate does not have time to go through the necessary approval procedures due to lack of time, or loses to the Republicans due to the weak candidacy of the Democrats.

According to an American expert, the chances of former President Donald Trump winning the election have significantly increased in light of the attempt on his life. The Biden Campaign is on the defensive now given how its rhetoric against Trump is now believed to have motivated the shooter.

Kamran Bokhari draws attention to the fact that the Democrats pulled the TV ads that they had planned to use against Trump. The Democrats were hoping to increase the attacks on the former president as a danger to democracy and now they can’t do that anymore - at least not in the way they were until the shooting. The assassination attempt has created a major dilemma for Team Biden in terms of how to attract voters against Trump.

Kamran Bokhari answered the main question, how the arrival of Donald Trump or Joe Biden will affect the U.S.–Kazakhstan relations over the next four years and the answer is that – regardless of who comes to power, the U.S. foreign policy course will remain unchanged towards Kazakhstan and Central Asia in general.

This is due to the fact that behind the backs of both elderly candidates are the same teams of the "old guard", which will continue the chosen political course.

Kamran Bokhari suggested that the next 2028 elections could change the U.S. approach to our region, as new young political leaders will come and the American political elite will be updated during this time.