Why Kazakhstan needs a nuclear cluster: Key benefits, risks and more details

Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has instructed to accelerate the construction of the first nuclear power plant and initiate the creation of a nuclear cluster, Kazinform News Agency reports.

NPP
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Kazinform correspondent explores why these projects are needed, what risks are associated with them, and what benefits they could bring to the country. Additionally, we will discuss the most suitable locations for future nuclear power plants and the strategic path toward achieving carbon neutrality.

To provide a comprehensive perspective, we have turned to an expert in the field. Gulnara Bizhanova, Deputy Chairperson of the board at the National Chamber of Entrepreneurs "Atameken," oversees issues related to the mining and metallurgical complex and the energy sector.

The expert explained the importance of developing a nuclear cluster in Kazakhstan, highlighting its potential benefits for energy security and economic growth, as well as the key risks associated with its implementation.

What are the key objectives of establishing a nuclear cluster in Kazakhstan?

The creation of a nuclear cluster in Kazakhstan is driven by several key objectives, including ensuring energy security, developing the national nuclear industry, and maximizing economic benefits from nuclear technologies. One of the primary goals is to reduce reliance on traditional energy sources such as coal and gas while ensuring stable and environmentally friendly electricity generation. This is especially important given the country’s growing energy demand and commitments to decarbonization.

Another key aim is to enhance uranium processing. Kazakhstan is the world’s leading producer of uranium, yet most of its output is exported as raw material. Expanding domestic production of nuclear fuel and reactor components will add value to the industry and create new jobs.

A crucial aspect of the cluster’s development is workforce training and the advancement of nuclear research. This will require expanding educational programs, establishing research centers, and integrating Kazakhstan into international projects focused on cutting-edge nuclear technologies, including small modular reactors (SMR) and next-generation nuclear systems.

NPP
Photo credit: Freepik.com

Additionally, the formation of a nuclear cluster will open up new opportunities for international cooperation. Kazakhstan will be able to attract investment, collaborate with leading global nuclear technology companies, and strengthen its position on the international nuclear market.

Which regions of Kazakhstan are the most suitable for the construction of a second nuclear power plant?

The selection of a region for Kazakhstan’s second nuclear power plant (NPP) will depend on several key factors, including electricity demand, availability of water resources for reactor cooling, infrastructure readiness, geological and seismic conditions, and overall economic feasibility.

One of the top contenders, according to experts, is the East Kazakhstan region. It is home to major industrial enterprises that significantly impact the local environment, and its energy consumption is high, particularly in large industrial centers. The region also benefits from a skilled workforce with nuclear industry experience, thanks to the Ulba Metallurgical Plant. However, its seismic activity requires further research before construction.

Another potential site is the Mangistau region, specifically the city of Aktau. This location previously hosted the BN-350 industrial nuclear power plant, proving that a new facility could be feasible. The region has a well-developed industrial infrastructure and major energy consumers, particularly in the oil and gas sector. Additionally, an NPP could provide desalinated water, which is a critical need for the region. However, the limited availability of water resources necessitates a careful evaluation of reactor cooling technologies.

Pavlodar region is also considered a strong candidate. As one of Kazakhstan’s largest industrial hubs, it hosts metallurgical and chemical enterprises that require large amounts of electricity. The region has an extensive high-voltage power transmission network and access to the Irtysh River, which makes it a favorable location for an NPP. Moreover, a nuclear plant could gradually replace coal-fired power generation, helping reduce CO₂ emissions and improve environmental conditions.

Southern regions such as Turkistan and Shymkent also face significant energy shortages, making them potential locations for new power generation facilities. An NPP in these areas could greatly enhance energy supply stability. However, the limited availability of water resources may pose a challenge to reactor cooling and overall feasibility.

What advanced technologies are planned for this project?

The development of Kazakhstan’s nuclear cluster and the construction of a new NPP will incorporate advanced technologies designed to ensure maximum safety, efficiency, and environmental sustainability. One of the main priorities is the deployment of Generation III+ reactors, which feature passive safety systems capable of preventing accidents even in the event of a power outage. These technologies are already in use in global nuclear projects and have demonstrated high reliability.

Additionally, nuclear scientists involved in the project have proposed exploring the use of SMRs. These reactors offer scalable power generation, shorter construction times, and lower risks associated with large-scale plants. They are particularly suitable for remote regions and industrial applications.

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Digital technologies and AI-driven automated monitoring systems will also play a crucial role in the project. Experts believe that integrating artificial intelligence into plant operations will enhance safety oversight, reduce human error, and optimize overall efficiency.

Another key focus is the development of nuclear fuel recycling technologies. This will help minimize radioactive waste and improve uranium utilization—an important consideration given Kazakhstan’s significant uranium reserves. In the long term, the project may also explore innovative reactor technologies, such as high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and fast neutron reactors, which offer more efficient fuel use and reduced waste production.

The President has instructed to replace all outdated thermal power stations (TPS) with innovative coal plants, similar to those in China and South Korea. Currently, most TPS in Kazakhstan are highly worn out. How long could it take to replace outdated TPS with innovative coal stations?

Replacing outdated thermal power plants (TPPs) with modern, innovative coal-fired stations is a complex and long-term process that requires substantial investment and time. On average, constructing a new coal-fired TPP takes between four and seven years, including design, permitting, financing, construction, and commissioning. A complete replacement of aging power plants in Kazakhstan could take 15 to 20 years if done in stages.

Globally, advanced technologies such as ultra-supercritical (USC) steam systems and carbon capture and storage (CCS) are already in use, significantly improving efficiency and reducing emissions. Kazakhstan is actively working on adopting these technologies. For instance, as far as we know, plans are underway to introduce supercritical (SC) steam technology at the third and fourth units of Ekibastuz GRES-2, as well as at the future Ekibastuz GRES-3. These upgrades will enhance power generation efficiency and lower the environmental impact.

To accelerate the modernization of coal-fired power generation, Kazakhstan needs a comprehensive master plan for power plant development, a structured investment strategy, localization of equipment production, and a phased approach to replacing the most deteriorated plants. If the process is well-organized, the first upgraded TPPs could be operational within five to seven years, with full modernization of the coal power sector achievable by 2040.

Will new coal-fired power plants in Kazakhstan use supercritical or ultra-supercritical technologies like in China and South Korea?

Available information suggests that Kazakhstan’s new coal-fired power plants are likely to adopt supercritical and ultra-supercritical technologies, similar to those implemented in China and South Korea. These advanced systems enhance power plant efficiency, reduce specific fuel consumption, and significantly lower CO₂ emissions—critical factors amid the global energy transition and Kazakhstan’s decarbonization commitments.

Currently, projects are already underway to introduce supercritical steam technology at the third and fourth units of Ekibastuz GRES-2, as well as at the planned Ekibastuz GRES-3. This confirms Kazakhstan’s strategy of transitioning to more efficient coal power generation. The adoption of these technologies could boost power plant efficiency from the conventional 35–38% to 42–45%, substantially cutting greenhouse gas emissions and improving economic performance.

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Photo credit: Kazinform

Ultra-supercritical technologies could be implemented in the future, particularly if Kazakhstan prioritizes new TPP construction aligned with global best practices. However, this will require equipment modernization, workforce development, and adaptation of existing coal mining operations to support advanced technologies.

What risks could arise when implementing these large-scale projects on a tight timeline?

Like any large-scale initiative, the construction of new power plants using supercritical and ultra-supercritical technologies within a compressed timeframe carries several significant risks.

The first and most critical challenge is financing. Building new thermal power plants requires multi-billion-dollar investments, and any shortfall in budget allocations or private sector funding could delay projects. Securing financing from international financial institutions may also be difficult due to the global trend of phasing out coal-based power generation.

Another key risk is infrastructure and technological readiness. Implementing supercritical and USC technologies will require not only the modernization of power plants but also upgrades in related industries, such as coal mining and transportation logistics. Additional investments in coal infrastructure and railway networks may be necessary to ensure a reliable supply chain.

Workforce shortages could also become a major obstacle. Kazakhstan currently lacks a sufficient number of specialists with experience in supercritical and USC technologies. This will require large-scale training and retraining programs, as well as the potential recruitment of foreign experts.

Regulatory and bureaucratic hurdles could further slow project implementation. Large energy projects require multiple permits, environmental impact assessments, and public consultations. If these approval processes are prolonged, construction timelines may be disrupted, leading to cost overruns.

Finally, environmental challenges pose a significant concern. Although the new coal-fired plants will be cleaner than existing ones, Kazakhstan remains under pressure to meet international environmental commitments. Potential CO₂ emission limits and carbon regulations imposed by the EU and other trading partners could affect the long-term viability of coal projects.

Without addressing these risks, the modernization of Kazakhstan’s coal power sector could face serious delays and fail to deliver the expected benefits.

How will the development of advanced coal-fired power plants impact Kazakhstan’s overall energy balance?

The introduction of innovative coal-fired power plants using supercritical and ultra-supercritical technologies will have a significant impact on Kazakhstan’s energy balance by improving efficiency, reducing emissions, and stabilizing power supply.

First, energy efficiency will increase. Currently, most coal-fired power plants in Kazakhstan operate with an efficiency of around 35–38%, whereas new SC and USC technologies can raise this figure to 42–45%, and in some cases even 50%. This means that less coal will be required to generate the same amount of electricity, reducing fuel costs and increasing available capacity without the need for additional coal production.

Grid stability will improve as well. Coal-fired generation still accounts for approximately 70% of Kazakhstan’s electricity production, particularly in the northern regions. Replacing outdated plants with modern ones will reduce the risk of breakdowns, minimize inefficient energy losses, and allow for a more balanced distribution of power across the national grid.

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Photo credit: Akorda

From an environmental perspective, advanced coal-fired power plants will significantly cut emissions. By increasing efficiency and integrating carbon capture technologies, CO₂ emissions, as well as harmful pollutants like sulfur and nitrogen compounds, could be reduced by 20–30%. This is particularly important for industrial regions such as East Kazakhstan and Pavlodar regions, where traditional power plants have had a negative environmental impact.

Moreover, energy dependence in the southern regions will decrease. Southern Kazakhstan currently faces electricity shortages and relies on power transmission from the north, leading to significant transmission losses. New coal-fired plants could help address this imbalance and enhance the country’s overall energy security.

However, coal generation must be balanced with nuclear and renewable energy development. If Kazakhstan focuses too heavily on coal-fired power, it may face long-term risks due to tightening international climate regulations and potential economic sanctions on carbon-intensive industries. Therefore, to ensure sustainable energy development, coal plant modernization should go hand in hand with investments in nuclear power and renewable energy sources.

How will increasing electricity reserves help prevent power outages and stabilize Kazakhstan’s energy system?

Expanding electricity reserves is crucial for preventing blackouts and ensuring the stability of Kazakhstan’s power grid by improving flexibility, reliability, and resilience.

First, adequate reserve capacity helps compensate for unexpected generation failures caused by accidents, technical malfunctions, or extreme weather conditions. In Kazakhstan, where many power plants are outdated, breakdowns occur frequently. Without sufficient reserves, the grid becomes vulnerable. Increasing reserves will allow the system to quickly recover from sudden capacity shortages and prevent rolling blackouts, which could otherwise lead to large-scale outages.

Second, reserves play a key role in balancing energy demand. Electricity consumption fluctuates throughout the day and across seasons—demand is much higher in winter and lower in summer. Without adequate reserves, the system operates at full capacity, increasing the risk of overload and equipment failure. Additional reserves enable the grid to respond flexibly to demand spikes and maintain stability.

Moreover, strengthening reserves will reduce southern Kazakhstan’s dependence on northern power stations. The southern regions face chronic electricity shortages and rely on power transmission from the north, leading to high grid losses and reduced supply reliability. Developing reserve capacities in the south will enhance energy security and minimize the risk of disruption.

Additionally, reserves are essential for integrating renewable energy sources. Solar and wind power are intermittent, meaning their output depends on weather conditions. To balance fluctuations, fast-responding backup power sources are needed, such as modern gas-fired plants, pumped storage hydropower, or energy storage systems.

Ultimately, expanding electricity reserves will enhance Kazakhstan’s grid stability, reduce the risk of outages, improve supply reliability in the southern regions, and support the sustainable growth of the energy sector, including the integration of renewable energy sources and new nuclear power plants.

Earlier it was reported that Energy Minister Almassadam Satkaliyev has stated that the Energy Ministry is considering a construction site for the country’s 3rd nuclear power plant.

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