UNDP climate expert shares latest projections, challenges for Kazakhstan
Recent climate projections from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) underscore the urgent need for immediate action on climate change in Kazakhstan. Despite global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), the country faces disproportionate warming, with temperatures projected to surge by over 6 degrees Celcius by century’s end. UNDP climate expert Gulmira Sergazina spoke about the urgency of addressing climate change and shared the organization’s latest climate projections in an interview with Kazinform News Agency.
Sergazina provided invaluable insights into the implications of these forecasts and emphasized the critical need for both adaptation and mitigation efforts.
Climate projections
In Europe and Central Asia, UNDP is the largest service provider in the UN system on climate change mitigation and adaptation. It supports countries that are in transition toward low-emission and climate-resilient sustainable development, helps them build resilience to the impacts of climate change and formulate low-carbon development strategies that “guarantee a cleaner, greener, and more secure future.”
“Average annual temperatures will rise significantly by the end of the 21st century along all emission pathways considered, with a larger increase in national temperature than the global average and most other Asian countries. According to the trajectory of the highest emissions (SSP5-8.5) by the end of the century, the average annual temperature in Kazakhstan is projected to increase by more than 6 degrees Celcius, about 3 degrees Celcius more than under the lower emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), indicating a large difference in warming across Kazakhstan that can be achieved by controlling global emissions,” she said.
She also noted most climate models project a certain increase in annual precipitation in Kazakhstan.
“By the middle of the current century, this increase on average in Kazakhstan will be 7-8%, depending on the scenario of GHG emissions, by the end of the century - in the range of 11-14%,” she added.
Sergazina also pointed out uneven annual precipitation patterns.
“The minimum increase is expected in the west of Kazakhstan - less than 10%, the maximum in the southeast - slightly more than 20%. The largest increase in average seasonal precipitation in Kazakhstan can be expected in winter - by the end of the century by 20-35%, in spring by 13-16%, and in autumn by about 7%. In the summer, an unfavorable scenario is expected - an average decrease in precipitation by 12% in Kazakhstan,” she explained.
Peak summer temperatures are set to become increasingly hazardous to human health and various plant and animal species. The frequency of days with temperatures surpassing 35 degrees Celcius will notably rise by the end of the century, particularly under conditions of high global warming.
“The frequency of days with temperatures exceeding the threshold of 35 degrees Celcius will increase sharply by the end of the century, especially with a high level of global warming by 30–40 days in the north of the republic and by 50–60 days in the southern regions. By the end of the century, in the southern regions, the frequency of days with even higher temperatures, above 40 degrees Celcius, for 20-30 days a year or even in some regions for 50-60 days,” she said.
Sergazina underscored the sobering reality of climate change, highlighting the persistence of global warming despite efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
“Even if anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are sharply reduced right now, global warming will continue due to the inertia of the Earth's climate system,” she explained.
Climate change is poised to bring both negative and positive effects in the future, with existing infrastructure largely designed under the climate conditions of past decades. However, the impacts are predominantly negative, especially in arid regions, often with significant consequences. The increase in the likelihood and intensity of heat waves and alterations in the hydrological cycle exacerbate these effects.
“To avoid the dangerous effects of climate change, we need to act in two directions: to reduce the impact on the climate system by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and to adapt to changes already observed and expected. To adapt effectively, minimizing damage and fully reaping the benefits of climate change and its impact on economic sectors.
Rising weather abnormalities such as the latest rainfall in Dubai and natural phenomena are also “indicators of a broader trend in global climate change.”
Climate resilience of Kazakhstan
“Future climate resilience and infrastructure planning in Central Asia should be adopted for the implementation of a regional strategy on adaptation to climate change. Every Central Asia country at the national level is highly recommended to plan and integrate climate change adaptation measures in economic sectors, legally defined as a priority, as well as in regional programs implemented by local governments,” she said.
She recalled the Environmental Code that Kazakhstan adopted in July 2021 that introduced new provisions on climate adaptation.
The effort cuts across several areas - impact, vulnerability and risk assessment; planning; implementation; monitoring, evaluation and learning.
“By 2030, all parties have conducted up-to-date assessments of climate hazards, climate change impacts and exposure to risks and vulnerabilities and have used the outcomes of these assessments to inform their formulation of national adaptation plans, policy instruments, and planning processes and/or strategies, and by 2027 all parties have established multi-hazard early warning systems, climate information services for risk reduction and systematic observation to support improved climate-related data, information and services,” she explained regarding the first area.
Challenges moving on
Looking ahead, Sergazina outlined significant challenges for Kazakhstan, particularly in agriculture and water resources.
“Projected higher temperatures, together with increasing irrigated agricultural land areas, may significantly increase water consumption from 16,366 million cubic meters in 2020 to 41,575 million cubic meters in 2030,” said Sergazina.
Economic losses and water shortages necessitate proactive adaptation measures.
“Economic losses in wheat yield and livestock productivity are estimated at 33 and 10% respectively by 2030, and 12 and 15% respectively by 2050. On the contrary, climate warming may have a positive impact on sunflower seed yield, with production increasing by 8% by 2030 and by about 4% by 2050,” she said.
She stressed the need for the introduction of water-saving technologies and switching to drought-resistant crops as “key drivers of water consumption efficiency in the country.”
In terms of the water sector, Sergazina noted that modeling results indicate that runoff is likely to decrease by the end of the twenty-first century in all water basins except for the Balkhash-Alakol Hydroeconomic Basin. The impact on water availability may worsen due to the anticipated increase in water consumption resulting from the projected expansion of irrigated agricultural land by 2030 and higher average annual temperatures.
“The potential water shortages projected by climate modeling should be taken into account during the planned expansion of irrigated agricultural land, especially in relation to rivers in flat areas and mountainous areas,” she said.
